Dourdan,
France, 1-4 May 2005
8:00-9:00
Registration
9:00 Introductory comments
on goals of workshop - P. Leadley and comments from the organizing
committee: J. Morgan, I.C. Prentice, L. Rustad & A. Watkinson
9:10 Brief summary of
previous Global Change and Biodiversity meetings - A. Watkinson
9:20 Introduction of
participants - a few introductory words from each participant
9:45 Presentation of
DIVERSITAS (A. Larigauderie, J.P.
Rodriguez), TERACC (L. Rustad), and the Global Land Project (D.
Ojima)
10:15
Effects of CO2, temperature, N and precipitation on plant and soil organism
diversity in patch scale experiments.
(Syntheses
of current knowledge - 20 min each)
Effects of elevated CO2 on plant and soil community
structure - Ch Körner
Effects of elevated temperature on ecosystem
structure and function - L. Rustad
10:55
Coffee break
11:10
(cont.)
Effects of nitrogen deposition on plant community
structure - F. Berendse
Interactions between multiple environmental changes
- E. Zavaleta
11:50
Gap-dynamic and patch-scale models of vegetation response to global env.
change
(Underlying
drivers, key hypotheses & simplifying assumptions, predictions - 20 min
each)
Modeling forest community dynamics as affected by
global change - H. Bugmann
Modeling the effects of global change on shrublands
and grasslands - J. Reynolds
12:30
Lunch and stroll around the grounds
14:00
Bioclimatic models of plant and animal species responses to environmental
change
(Underlying
drivers, key hypotheses & simplifying assumptions, predictions - 20 min
each)
Bioclimatic models for
European plant and animal species - W. Thullier
Bioclimatic models for South
African fynbos - G. Midgley
Bioclimatic models for
insect distributions - R. Sutherst
15:00
Coffee break
15:15
Biome and plant functional type responses to as predicted by global
vegetation models
(Underlying
drivers, key hypotheses & simplifying assumptions, predictions - special
emphasis on physiological response and competition - 20 min each)
MAPSS model - D. Bachelet
LPJ model - I.C. Prentice
Sheffield model - B. Bond
16:15
Observations of shifts in species range or phenology (20 min each)
Evidence for range shifts in plants - J. Penuelas
Evidence for range shifts in animals - C.
Parmesan
Evidence for shifts in plant phenology - T.
Sparks
17:15 Conveying the
biodiversity message to decision makers in the larger context of climate change
- A. Watkinson.
17:30
- 18:00 Plenary discussion and planning
for day 2
19:00
Dinner
Tuesday,
May 3 - Challenges: burning issues that need to be addressed to improve
confidence in our ability to predict the effects of global environmental change
on biodiversity
Morning
- Short presentations (5-10 mins) and discussion in plenary session.
8:15
- 9:15 Can bioclimatic models be
compared with observed changes in species ranges? Are there data sets and models that are well adapted for making
this kind of comparison?
Discussion
leader - R. Sutherst
9:15
- 10:15 Are diversity responses to environmental change comparable in
experimental systems and in models? How
can we incorporate our understanding of the mechanisms of response to
vegetation to multiple environmental changes in the next generation of models?
Discussion
leader - P. Leadley
Comments on including
additional mechanism in bioclimatic models - S. Schaeffer
Comparing experiments and
models for vegetation change in S. Africa - G. Midgley
Comparing experiments and
models for prairie vegetation - J. Morgan
10:15
Coffee break
10:30
- 11:30 How fast can species move? Dispersal limits and interactions with
land use. Are dispersal rates likely to
be too slow to keep up with environmental change? Is it a reasonable objective to include dispersal in models of
species response to environmental change?
Discussion
leader - J. Clark
Paleological perspectives on
dispersion - S. Higgins / J. Clark
Importance/treatment of
dispersal in models - S. Lavorel, H. Bugmann, G. Midley
11:30
- 12:30 How can we separate climate change effects from other natural and
human induced (e.g., land use) shifts in plant and animal ranges? How should earth observation systems be
designed to detect biodiversity responses to environmental change?
Discussion
leader - R. Green
12:30 Lunch and stroll around the grounds
Afternoon
- Additional burning issues and/or breakoutgroups
Possible
additional topics
• Designing
the next generation of global change experiments. How can we best refine our understanding of the mechanisms of
diversity response? What are the best
means to study multiple interactions? - Discussion leader: L. Rustad
•
etc...
The
role of breakout groups is to further identify key issues that need to be
resolved and discuss concrete means of addressing these issues through
collaborative work. Breakout group topics may correspond to discussion topics
in the morning.
Wednesday,
May 4 - Perspectives - Discussion and breakout groups
8:15
- 10:30 Continued work in breakout
groups
10:30
Coffee break
10:45
- 11:30 Reports from breakout groups in plenary session
11:30
- 12:30 Plenary discussion
Is
there a coherent message about the effects of global change on biodiversity
that emerges from comparing a variety of experiments, models and observations? Is this message strong enough to merit
writing a journal article?
What
kinds of challenges can be reasonably taken on in the near future? How would this be best accomplished? What will the role of the GLP, DIVERSITAS
and TERACC be?
What
should the long-term goals be?
12:30
Closing remarks by the organizers
12:45
- Lunch