MTMPP (Maine Tourism Marketing Partnership Program)
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The CENTRO Tourism Forecasting ProjectThe University of Maine System Center for Tourism Research and Outreach (CENTRO) is undertaking to prepare short and long term forecasts of tourism activity in Maine. The purpose of the forecasts is to better inform businesses, visitors, and others interested in tourism. The project will result in forecasts of two different types:
The forecasts will be prepared using econometric and other models of Turnpike traffic and other variables, and will incorporate influences such as oil and gasoline prices, weather conditions, and economic conditions in New England and the U.S. The project’s first product, the Labor Day 2006 forecast is based on a model which estimates north bound traffic at the York toll plaza of the Turnpike as a function of:
The model shows the inter-relationship among these influences. Gasoline prices are negatively related to Turnpike traffic, while crude oil prices are positive related. This indicates that high oil prices are encouraging a greater number of short trips, while high gasoline prices reduce the number of total trips. Weather conditions are shown to have more of an influence on trips to Maine than crude oil or gasoline prices, at least on Labor Day weekend. Rain is the biggest deterrent to trips, while hot dry weather attracts additional trips. The CENTRO Tourism Forecasting project is at the beginning of a two-year developmental phase. In 2006, the project expects to produce holiday forecasts for Labor Day and Columbus Day, and an outlook for tourism in 2007. The first quarterly and annual forecasts will be presented at a Tourism Outlook Conference to take place on November 10, 2006 in Hallowell. Dr. Charles Colgan, Professor of Public Policy and Management at USM’s Muskie School and Associate Director of CENTRO is preparing the forecasts. The University of Maine System Center for Tourism Research and Outreach is a joint center of the University of Maine System campuses, with principal locations at the University of Maine and University of Southern Maine. For more information about CENTRO, contact CENTRO director Professor Harold Daniel at the University of Maine or visit http://www.umaine.edu/centro/about/. The CENTRO Tourism Forecasting project is funded by the Maine Turnpike Authority, with additional support from the State of Maine Department of Economic and Community Development, Maine’s tourism industry, and the New England Economic Partnership. Comments on the forecasts and project are welcome, and may be addressed by email to USMCBER@usm.maine.edu. For more information:
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