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CenTRO
University of Maine
5782 Winslow Hall
Orono, ME 04469-5782

ph: 207-581-3102
fax: 207-581-4278
e-mail: Kimberly.Junkins@umit.maine.edu



 

Forecasting Maine Turnpike Traffic and Tourism Activity

Goals:

  • To develop economic models of Maine Turnpike traffic that will permit forecasts of traffic at York and other toll plazas at monthly, weekly, and daily frequencies.
  • To provide regular long range (1 quarter ahead) and short range (weekly and daily) forecasts of traffic
  • To link the forecasts of Turnpike traffic to other economic data such as food and lodging sales
  • To explore the development of economic forecasting models that might be useful for other transportation modes, such as aircraft emplanements.

 

Methods:

  • Using data from the Maine Turnpike, develop and test different types of forecasting models for Turnpike Traffic.
  • Link Turnpike traffic statistically to changes in the national, regional, and Maine economy and to other variables such as weather conditions in Maine and in other principal tourist markets within driving distance.
  • Develop statistical links between Turnpike traffic and other tourist related economic measures such as meals and lodging sales, visitors to tourist regions, etc.
  • Prepare means to communicate the forecasts, their implications, and risks to the media and to the tourism industry.

 

Timeframe

  • Seek funding from Maine Turnpike Authority:  March 2006
  • Develop and test preliminary models:  April-June 2006
  • Test forecast communications:  July-October, 2006
  • Revise models and communications channels:  November-December
  • Fully implement forecasting models and communications:  2007

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