University of Maine

Research Units - Environmental 
and Natural Resources Policy


HEALTH AND SOCIAL POLICY
ENVIRONMENTAL AND NATURAL RESOURCES POLICY
ECONOMIC AND COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
CIVIC VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS

Margaret Chase Smith
Center for Public Policy
University of Maine
5715 Coburn Hall
Orono, ME 04469-5715
Tel: (207) 581-1648
Fax: (207) 581-1266

 

The Alternate Fuel Transition:
Results from the TAFV Model of Alternate Fuel Use in Light-Duty Vehicles 1996-2000

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Table of Contents
Title Page
Abstract
Acknowledgments
Table of Contents
List of Tables
List of Figures
Acronyms and Abbreviations
Executive Summary
1.0 Introduction and Overview
1.1 Principal Objectives
1.2 General Model Structure
1.3 Cost Function Representation of Supply Modules
1.4 Market Balancing Conditions
2.0 Principle Assumptions and Data
2.1 Wholesale Fuel Supply Curves
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Ethanol
Foreign Methanol
2.2 TAFV Motor Fuels Taxes
2.3 Retail Fuel Supply Curves
2.4 Vehicle Services Demand for New and Used Vehicles
2.5 Key Transitional Phenomena Modeled
2.6 Effective Costs of Limited Retail Fuel Availability
2.7 Vehicle Manufacturers’ Costs per Model
2.8 Endogenous Vehicle-Model Diversity and the Effective Cost of Limited Diversity
2.9 Gasoline Displacement by Replacement Fuels
3.0 Scenarios and Results
3.1 Base Case Scenario Assumptions
3.2 Base Case Fuel Prices with No Transitional Barriers
3.3 Base Case Fuel Prices with Transitional Barriers
3.4 EPACT Private and Local Rulemaking
3.5 Low-GHG Tax Credit
3.6 Continued Ethanol tax credit
3.7 Increased CAFE Standards
3.8 AFV Fuel Share and Gasoline Displacement Results Under Higher Oil Prices
4.0 Model Results Compared to EIA Data
5.0 Conclusions
Appendix 1: Cases Examined in the TAFV Modeling Study
Appendix 2: Technical Assumptions
Appendix 3 - Result Graphs
Appendix 4 - How to Use the TAFV Result Workbook

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