Research Areas - Environmental Policy

IMPACTS OF RISING SEA LEVEL ON COASTAL POPULATIONS IN MAINE AND CALIFORNIA

One of the dominant demographic trends of the late 20~ century has been the growth of population in coastal communities. As of 1994 some 53.2 percent of the U.S. population lived in the 673 (of the total of 3143) counties designated as coastal by NOAA. Between 1960 and 2010, the coastal population will have grown from 80 million to more than 127 million people, an increase of almost 60 percent. Consequently there is a significant increase in the population exposed to the risk of sea level rise and coastal erosion.

This project builds on initial collaborative work with the University of Southern California (FY 1997-99 USC Sea Grant and USC Grant # NGA 63GP0486) to form a team of researchers which will be the first in the U.S. to integrate coastal erosion rates, sea level rise, and coastal population changes into local resource, risk assessment and social impact models. The purpose of the work is to develop local and regional research and response protocols that will have national utility for assessing physical, economic, and social impacts of sea level rise, including shoreline retreat and, erosion and storm surges.

Specifically, we will:

1)   Estimate concentrations of coastal settlements, households, infrastructures and population potentially affected in Maine.

2)   Develop population projections for coastal areas (at township level), particularly those identifies as high risk areas.

3)   Identify local "stakeholders" with vested interests in policies pertaining to sea level rise and conduct interviews to obtain information on how these stakeholders might influence possible strategies for dealing with sea level rise.

4)   Develop "no regrets" response strategies (those which are both prudent and practical even if there is little or no sea level rise) to sea level rise as a basis for both a local and national response protocol to sea level rise.

Funding Agency:  Maine/New Hampshire Sea Grant Program (NOAA)

Principal Investigator:  Deirdre Mageean

Collaborator:   None