Education
for Sustainable Living, Environmental Respect, and Celebrating the Quality of
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| Global Climate Change - Introduction Global warming, once one of the more hotly debated topics in science, has virtually become accepted fact. While some argue about the accuracy of specific predictions or specifics about the exact nature of the changes to come, most believe that change is underway. Since some areas will likely warm while others cool, it may be more accurate to use the term global climate change instead of global warming to describe the phenomenon. Interestingly, climate change predictions are not something new to the new millennium. One can look at what was predicted 20 years ago for for the current time period as a starting point to test our predictive capacity. James Speth, as the chair of the Carter administration's Council on Environmental Quality, produced a publication entitled Global 2000 - Report to the President, which included predictions of what would happen if society continued its unabated use of fossil fuels, and implemented few programs to influence population growth etc. This is what was predicted in that report: * Projected population increases from 4 billion to 6.3 billion by 2000. The actual number has been closer to 6 billion due primarily to the impact of AIDS. * Tropical deforestation would occur at rates in excess of an acre per second. That prediction has been accurate. * An estimated 15 to 20 percent of all species would be lost, and recent analysis suggests that this estimate was not far off the mark. * An area about the size of Maine would be rendered barren each year by desertification. And that remains a decent estimate. * Growing energy use would lead in this century to a 2 to 3 degree Celsius rise in mid-latitude temperatures and to significant changes in rainfall patterns. This description of the greenhouse effect remains accurate. This should provide some confidence that the models used to make climate and other land-use related predictions in the 1980's were reasonably accurate, and that the improved models used today should be even more accurate. One of the most inclusive sources of information on climate change has come from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 to assess the scientific information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC meets annually and reports are issued to provide current information to policy makers. The last set of reports are the IPCC Third Assessment Report - Climate Change 2001. As seen in the graphic below, we are in a period of global warming:
Since 1990, the world has experienced 10 of its warmest years on record, with 1998, 2002, and 2003 as the warmest three on record. Over the past century, temperatures increased by 1 degree F (0.6 degree C). Over the subsequent century, scientists predict an increase of an additional 2.5 to 10 degrees F. This will likely have other consequences such as: * increased coastal flooding and sea level rise * increased incidence of extreme weather events * increased incidence of drought * impacts to human health with increased vector-borne disease Climatic events such as hurricanes in the South Atlantic, and unprecedented glacial ice melting are things predicted by climate change scientists. Even the Pentagon is interested in climate change and the potential instability that may be caused. Even though we climatic events are newsworthy, people rarely make the connections. That is the goal of the Environmental Sustainability Project: learn about the connections and to learn what we can do to help slow or prevent the problems.
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of Maine System In complying with the letter and spirit of applicable laws and in pursuing its own goals of diversity, the University of Maine System shall not discriminate on the grounds of race, color, religion, sex, sexual orientation, national origin or citizenship status, age, disability, or veterans' status in employment, education, and all other areas of the University. The University provides reasonable accommodations to qualified individuals with disabilities upon request. Questions and complaints about discrimination in any area of the University should be directed to the Director of Equal Opportunity, 101 North Stevens, (207) 581-1226. Information in this web site is provided purely for educational purposes. No responsibility is assumed for any problems associated with the use of products or services mentioned in this web site. No endorsement of products or companies is intended, nor is criticism of unnamed products or companies implied. |
Source:
Hadley Center for Climate Change