Conservation Planning at Multiple Scales in the Maine Landscape: Modeling the Impacts of Ecological, Economic, Social, and Political Factors on Alternative Open Space Futures
Co-Principal Investigators
- Christopher Cronan, School of Biology and Ecology, University of Maine
- Tim Glidden, Land for Maine’s Future Program, Maine State Planning Office
- Robert Lilieholm, School of Forest Policy, University of Maine
Stakeholders:
- Lower Penobscot Watershed Coalition
- Maine State Planning Office
- Land for Maine’s Future program
- Maine Inland Fisheries and Wildlife
- Maine Department of Conservation
- Maine Department of Marine Resources
- Municipal Planning Boards in the Lower Penobscot Valley
- Maine Audubon
- National, Statewide, Regional, and Local Land Trusts
- Forest Society of Maine
- Small Woodlot Owners Association of Maine
- Maine Realtors Association
- Chamber of Commerce
- Eastern Maine Development Corporation
Final Summary Report (8/2008):
This project was designed to examine historical state-wide patterns of land conservation in Maine using GIS mapping, followed by a case study of the Lower Penobscot River Watershed focused on developing a decision-support framework for setting future priorities for open space conservation. Specific objectives were to: (1) assess achievements of previous land conservation efforts in Maine at local to regional scales, with particular emphasis on measuring ecological, social, and economic indicators of success or failure; and (2) identify new GIS models and approaches that permit examination of alternative futures for land use planning and knowledge-based decision-making in setting future priorities for land conservation at various scales in the landscape.
In the initial retrospective phase of this investigation, we focused on trying to assess what has been accomplished and what lessons have been learned over the last 20 years of land conservation efforts in Maine since initiation of the Land for Maine’s Future (LMF) Program. Our intent was to examine the geographic extent and distribution of private and public conservation lands and then to determine the degree to which protected lands in Maine represent core ecological, economic, and social values or indicators that are meaningful to a broad cross-section of citizens. As of 2007, protected lands accounted for 3.67 million acres out of a total state land area of 21.25 million acres, and 55% of those conservation lands were held in easements. Whereas the state is the largest fee owner of conservation lands (at >980,000 acres), land trusts hold easements for almost 1.7 million acres and account for almost 2.1 million acres of total conservation lands. The largest share of conservation lands protected through both ownership and easements is held by non-profit land trusts and conservation organizations (57%), followed by the state (35%), the federal government (5%), and municipalities (3%). Most of these holdings are concentrated in north-central, eastern, and western Maine in areas located away from population centers. By 2007, the Land for Maine’s Future Program had helped to fund over 445,000 acres of protected conservation lands at an average taxpayer cost of $162/acre. Overall, it appears that conservation lands in Maine do not generally represent higher concentrations of ecological values such as river protection, inland waterfowl habitat, listed turtle habitat, deer yards, or focal habitat areas that have been identified by the Maine Natural Areas Program. Rather, these conservation holdings are generally representative of the broad landscape in Maine.
The second phase of this investigation focused on the Lower Penobscot River Watershed (LPRW) as a smaller-scale study area where we could explore how differences in selection criteria and weighting of ecological, economic, and social priorities might affect future land use patterns and land conservation decisions in a region that is expected to experience rising development pressures in the coming decades. The LPRW was selected for several reasons. First, the Penobscot River drains nearly one-quarter of the state, and the study area covers a wide range of bio-physical and socio-economic conditions. In addition, a recent USDA Forest Service study ranked the LPRW first in the nation from more than 1,000 watersheds based on the number of forested acres projected to experience significant increases in housing density over the next 30 years. This combination of features makes the LPRW well-suited for testing new approaches to improving stakeholder-driven land use decision tools. The primary goal of the second phase of the investigation was to develop a generalized modeling approach for engaging stakeholders in land conservation and development decisions. Our methodology allows stakeholders to identify areas with high conservation values, and then to rank these lands according to the risk they face from different projections of future development. The framework can be used by conservationists to identify and prioritize areas for protection, or by municipalities and development interests seeking to identify lands suitable for development. In either case, the goal is to engage stakeholders in an iterative process that identifies important features of the landscape in order to improve land use decisions. The modeling approach includes two steps. In the first step, important landscape features are identified and ranked based on landscape attributes, stakeholder themes, and stakeholder theme weights. Next, these areas of high conservation value are compared to projections of future development in order to identify which areas are at greatest risk of future development.
